Viewing archive of Wednesday, 27 August 2014

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Aug 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 26/2325Z from Region 2146 (N07W58). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (28 Aug, 29 Aug) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (30 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 368 km/s at 27/2051Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 27/0848Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 27/0819Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (28 Aug), quiet to active levels on day two (29 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (30 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (28 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Aug to 30 Aug
Class M40%30%20%
Class X05%05%01%
Proton10%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Aug 123
  Predicted   28 Aug-30 Aug 125/125/120
  90 Day Mean        27 Aug 128

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Aug  016/021
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug  018/025-010/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug to 30 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%15%
Minor storm30%10%01%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm30%20%10%

All times in UTC

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