Viewing archive of Tuesday, 23 September 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Sep 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Sep 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
23/1536Z from Region 2172 (S11E36). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Sep, 25 Sep,
26 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
482 km/s at 23/1309Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 23/1357Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 23/1030Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 151 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (24 Sep, 25 Sep)
and quiet levels on day three (26 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Sep to 26 Sep
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Sep 138 Predicted 24 Sep-26 Sep 140/145/150 90 Day Mean 23 Sep 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Sep 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Sep 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep 008/010-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Sep to 26 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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