Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 September 2014

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Sep 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 04/1330Z from Region 2152 (S15W38). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Sep, 06 Sep, 07 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 443 km/s at 03/2346Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 04/0221Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 04/0210Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5 pfu at 04/1425Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2420 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Sep), unsettled to active levels on day two (06 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (07 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Sep to 07 Sep
Class M55%55%55%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Sep 146
  Predicted   05 Sep-07 Sep 150/155/155
  90 Day Mean        04 Sep 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep  011/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Sep  009/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep  007/010-015/020-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep to 07 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%35%25%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm25%20%25%

All times in UTC

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