Viewing archive of Friday, 5 September 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Sep 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
05/0654Z from Region 2157 (S14E58). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(06 Sep, 07 Sep, 08 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 445 km/s at
05/0803Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 05/0129Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/1442Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8 pfu at 05/1900Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 4242 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (06 Sep), quiet to
active levels on day two (07 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (08 Sep). Protons are likely to cross threshold on day one (06
Sep), are likely to cross threshold on day two (07 Sep) and have a
chance of crossing threshold on day three (08 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Sep to 08 Sep
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 70% | 60% | 50% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Sep 144 Predicted 06 Sep-08 Sep 145/145/145 90 Day Mean 05 Sep 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 017/022-013/015-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep to 08 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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