Viewing archive of Thursday, 2 October 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Oct 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
02/1901Z from Region 2173 (S13W85). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (03 Oct, 04 Oct) and
expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day
three (05 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 415 km/s at
02/1646Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 02/0326Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 02/1515Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1110 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (03 Oct, 05
Oct) and quiet levels on day two (04 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
| Class M | 45% | 35% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Oct 149 Predicted 03 Oct-05 Oct 145/140/140 90 Day Mean 02 Oct 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 007/008-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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