Viewing archive of Friday, 3 October 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Oct 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
03/0648Z from Region 2173 (S13W99). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (04 Oct) and expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (05 Oct,
06 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
402 km/s at 02/2330Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 02/2255Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 02/2134Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 624 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (04 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (05 Oct, 06 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Oct to 06 Oct
| Class M | 35% | 20% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Oct 137 Predicted 04 Oct-06 Oct 135/135/130 90 Day Mean 03 Oct 134
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct 013/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 005/005-007/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct to 06 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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