Viewing archive of Saturday, 25 October 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Oct 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X3 event observed at
24/2141Z from Region 2192 (S12W21), followed by an X1/3b at 25/1708 UTC.
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Oct, 27
Oct, 28 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
466 km/s at 24/2210Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 25/0516Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 25/1859Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1967 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (26 Oct, 28
Oct) and quiet to active levels on day two (27 Oct). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on day one (26 Oct), have a chance of
crossing threshold on day two (27 Oct) and have a chance of crossing
threshold on day three (28 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Oct to 28 Oct
| Class M | 85% | 85% | 85% |
| Class X | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Proton | 35% | 40% | 45% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Oct 219 Predicted 26 Oct-28 Oct 220/220/220 90 Day Mean 25 Oct 140
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct 007/010-011/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct to 28 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 40% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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