Viewing archive of Sunday, 26 October 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Oct 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at
26/1056Z from Region 2192 (S12W46). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be high on
days one, two, and three (27 Oct, 28 Oct, 29 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
422 km/s at 26/0537Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 26/1801Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 26/0822Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3489 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on day one (27 Oct) and have a chance of
crossing threshold on days two and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
| Class M | 85% | 85% | 85% |
| Class X | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Proton | 40% | 45% | 45% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Oct 217 Predicted 27 Oct-29 Oct 220/220/210 90 Day Mean 26 Oct 141
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct 011/012-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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