Viewing archive of Tuesday, 4 November 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Nov 04 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
04 Nov 2014	127	014
05 Nov 2014	129	011
06 Nov 2014	131	007

Bulletin

Solar activity was again dominated by the new region turning onto the visible disc and now numbered NOAA AR 2205. It produced three M flares during the period. The largest, an M6.5 flare, peaked at 22:40 UT. This morning an M2.7 flare peaked at 8:38UT immediately followed by an M2.2 peak around 9:04UT. Flaring activity from Catania group 3 (NOAA AR 2201) seems to decline. Most regions appear to be fairly stable. Over the next days NOAA AR 2205 can be expected to continue to produce flares at M level. Proton levels continue to decrease and are expected to decrease further over the next days. A number of CME's have been recorded over the period mostly attributed to activity close to the limb. The eruption of a filament in the northeastern quadrant appears in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph images at 12:12 UT. The bulk of the mass is clearly expelled in eastern direction of the Sun Earth line. With a angular width of around 150 degrees and moderate projected speeds it is not expected to be geoeffective. A westward CME was first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph images at 18:58 UT, followed by a south-eastward CME first visible at 20:48 UT and again an eastward CME appearing in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph images at 23:12 UT after a data gap. All are limb events and not expected to be geoeffective. A filament eruption from near Catania group 3 (NOAA AR 2201) currently facing Earth lifted off at 18:22 UT but appears to be narrow, mainly directed northward, and could not be traced in coronagraph images. It is thus not expected to be geoeffective. Solar wind speed fluctuated steadily around the 415 km/s level apart from a period with lower speeds around 380 km/s between around 18:00UT till just before 22:30 UT. Along with the speed picking up again at that time also the magnetic field increased suddenly from around the 3-5nT level to around the 10 nT level, possibly marking the influence of the November 1 eruption. Total magnetic field kept fluctuating mainly within the 8 to 12 nT range. The increased magnetic field was first associated with positive Bz. But following a sector change from a negative to a positive phi angle around 6:30 UT the total magnetic field took a dip for a short period and Bz became negative reaching values below -10nT. Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet (both NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 0-2) but increased to unsettled levels (both NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 3 for the 6-9UT inteval) after the sector change and associated negative Bz. Nominal wind conditions are expected to continue with later an increase in wind speed possible. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected, possibly increasing later to periods of active conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 073, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Nov 2014

Wolf number Catania	146
10cm solar flux	125
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	086 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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