Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 November 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Nov 05 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 05 Nov 2014 until 07 Nov 2014
Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
05 Nov 2014131015
06 Nov 2014133015
07 Nov 2014135007

Bulletin

Solar activity was dominated by the M7.9 flare peaking at 9:47 UT and originating from the new NOAA AR 2205 turning further into view. It was associated with a type II radio burst detected by Humain and Learmonth. Learmonth reports an estimated shock speed of between 364-556 km/s. SDO data to analyse the event closely are not available yet. A corresponding CME is visible in preliminary SOHO/LASCO C2 data but the onset is missed due to a data gap. We will follow up as more data becomes available. No other significant flaring activity occurred. Some further development and separation was recorded in Catania groups 3 (NOAA AR 2201), 4 (NOAA AR 2203) and 5 (NOAA unnumbered) as well as some flux emergence in Catania group 98 (NOAA AR 2200). Additional M flares are likely from NOAA AR 2205. Solar wind speed has been steadily increasing over the last 24 hours from just below 420 km/s to about 520 km/s presently. Total magnetic field reached a peak of over 14 nT at the start of the reporting period, but has decreased and is presently around 7 nT. Bz also reached peaks of -12 nT at the start of the reporting period. Consequently active geomagnetic conditions were recorded in the first part of the reporting period (NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 4) later recovering to quiet to unsettled conditions. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to continue under the influence of a coronal hole high speed stream with quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions with possible periods of active geomagnetic conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 105, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 04 Nov 2014

Wolf number Catania///
10cm solar flux129
AK Chambon La Forêt043
AK Wingst027
Estimated Ap026
Estimated international sunspot number076 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxEndLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
05092609470955N20E68M7.91N240--/2205II/2

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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