Viewing archive of Tuesday, 2 December 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Dec 02 1203 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
02 Dec 2014	165	012
03 Dec 2014	160	011
04 Dec 2014	158	010

Bulletin

Solar activity is low. The strongest flare, out of 5 low-level C-class flares reported in the last 24 hours, was the impulsive C5.2 flare (peaking at 08:05 UT) on December 2. The flare originated from the Catania sunspot group 18 (NOAA AR 2217), and does not seem to be associated with CME (currently available data give no indication about possible on disc signatures of the CME). Catania sunspot groups 18 and 24 (NOAA ARs 2217 and 2222) maintain beta-gamma configuration of their photospheric magnetic field and could be the source of C-class flares. An isolated M-class flare is still possible from the Catania sunspot group 24 (NOAA AR 2222). No Earth directed CMEs were observed during last 24 hours. The Earth is currently inside a fast solar wind with the speed of about 550 km/s. This high speed stream which arrived on the midday of December 01, is associated with the extended low-latitude coronal hole (between N25 and N70) which reached the central meridian on the morning of November 26 (the transition of the coronal hole across the central meridian lasted more than two days). During last 24 hours the interplanetary magnetic field was slightly elevated, reaching the magnitude of about 12nT, but its current value decrease to about 5nT. The arrival of the coronal hole high speed stream resulted in the unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions (K=3 reported by Dourbes, K=4 reported by IZMIRAN and NOAA reported Kp=4) in the evening of December 1 and early morning of December 2. The geomagnetic conditions are at the moment quiet to unsettled and expected to remain so in the coming hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 091, based on 02 stations.

Solar indices for 01 Dec 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	168
AK Chambon La Forêt	023
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	101 - Based on 04 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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