Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 December 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Dec 03 1210 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
03 Dec 2014	168	007
04 Dec 2014	169	010
05 Dec 2014	170	007

Bulletin

Solar activity continues to be at the level of a low C-class flaring. The strongest reported flare in last 24 hours was a C6.5 flare (peaked at 15:55 UT) on November 2, which originated from the Catania Sunspot group 24 (NOAA AR 2222). Similarly to majority of flares originating from this active region, the C6.5 flare seem to be a confined flare i.e. without an associated CME (currently available data give no indication about possible on disc signatures of the CME). No Earth directed CMEs were observed during last 24 hours. The solar wind speed reached its maximum value, of about 650 km/s, in the morning of November 2, and it was slowly decreasing afterwards. Earth is currently inside a slow solar wind with the speed of about 430 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is presently about 8nT. Short intervals of the negative value of the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (down to -8nT) in the evening of November 2 and early morning of November 3 resulted in the unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions (local stations Dourbes and IZMIRAN reported K=4, and NOAA reported Kp=3). The large polar coronal hole with the extent to the low latitudes (up to about S40) will be the source of the fast solar wind which might be expected at the Earth in the morning of December 6. We expect currently quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions to continue in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 088, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 02 Dec 2014

Wolf number Catania	203
10cm solar flux	168
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	013
Estimated Ap	013
Estimated international sunspot number	095 - Based on 09 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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