Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 December 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Dec 04 1221 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
04 Dec 2014	153	010
05 Dec 2014	149	010
06 Dec 2014	145	011

Bulletin

Majority of the low-level C-class flares and the M1.3 flare (peaking at 08:10 UT) observed this morning, originated from the Catania sunspot group 24 (NOAA AR 2222). The SDO/AIA data do not show on-disc signatures of the possibly associated CME, so we conclude that the M1.3 flare was most probably one of the numerous confined flares which originated from the Catania sunspot group 24 (NOAA AR 2222). Catania sunspot groups 18 and 24 (NOAA ARs 2217 and 2222) maintain beta-gamma configuration of the photospheric magnetic field and are expected to be the sources of C-class flares and possibly also an isolated M-class flare. No Earth directed CMEs were observed during last 24 hours. At the midday of December 3 the solar wind speed started to increase until it reached the value of about 500 km/s which is also observed at the present time. Concurrently with the increase of the solar wind speed, the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude increased to the value of about 10nT. This slightly elevated value of the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is still present. The fast solar wind originating from the large polar coronal hole with the extent to the low latitudes (up to about S40) might be expected at the Earth in the morning of December 6. We expect quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions to continue in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 067, based on 03 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Dec 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	154
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	088 - Based on 11 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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