Viewing archive of Tuesday, 30 December 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Dec 30 1220 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
30 Dec 2014	131	021
31 Dec 2014	130	006
01 Jan 2015	129	007

Bulletin

There are currently 7 sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. Only two C-class flares were recorded. The strongest one was a C2 flare produced by NOAA 2251 peaking at 06:46UT. Some coronal dimming was noted, but no radio-burst has been reported so far. The flare also destabilized the nearby, 35-degrees long filament on the northern hemisphere. There are no coronagraphic images yet to assess any CME activity related to these events. Further C-class flaring is likely, in particular from NOAA 2250, NOAA 2251 and a new, as yet unnumbered region near the southeast limb. Minor geomagnetic storming (K=5) was observed during the last 24 hours in response to a high speed stream. After steadying around 540 km/s, solar wind speed picked up again after 16:00UT and gradually increased till maximum vallues near 750 km/s were reached around 03:00UT. After 05:00UT, the speed gradually decreased to a current value of 670 km/s. Bz fluctuated wildly between -11 and +11 nT from 15:00UT till 01:00UT, then gradually varied to a fluctuation between -5 and +4 nT. A gradual evolution to quiet and unsettled conditions is expected, though a brief active episode remains possible. The extension of a southern polar coronal hole is approaching the CM. During its previous passage, the high speed stream from this CH was responsible for minor geomagnetic storming. Similar conditions can be expected on 04-05 January.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 071, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 29 Dec 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	132
AK Chambon La Forêt	038
AK Wingst	025
Estimated Ap	025
Estimated international sunspot number	068 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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