Viewing archive of Saturday, 8 November 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Nov 08 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
08 Nov 2014	146	006
09 Nov 2014	146	007
10 Nov 2014	146	007

Bulletin

Solar activity was high with an X1.7 flare originating from NOAA AR 2205 peaking at 17:25 UT. It was associated with a CME with first appearance in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph at 18:08 UT, but the actual onset is missed due to a 30 minute data gap just before. It is a partial halo CME directed to the north-east with angular width of at least 180 degrees. Cactus, however, wrongly included high speed components in the south- western direction and hence reported as full halo. Projected speeds are around 600 km/s. The event is also captured in STEREO A/COR 2 images. The bulk of the mass is expelled in north-eastern direction (off the Sun-Earth line) but a glancing blow can be expected on November 10 UT afternoon, though the effects are not expected to be strong. Further flaring at M level is expected from NOAA AR 2205 with also an X flare possible. Solar wind speed increased again over the reporting period to levels around 490 km/s with a peak over 530 km/s. The total magnetic field was increased over the first half of the period reaching a peak of close to 12 nT at around 18:45 UT, but settled back to levels around 6 nT for the second half of the period. The Bz component was variable reaching negative peak values of around -8nT during the first half of the period. Geomagnetic conditions were correspondingly quiet to unsettled (both NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 1-3). Slightly enhanced solar wind conditions with fluctuations due to sector boundary crossings are expected over the next days with corresponding quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions. In the afternoon of November 10 we can expect the arrival of the flanks of the November 7, 18UT CME, with as a consequence expected periods of active geomagnetic conditions, or possibly minor geomagnetic storm conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 062, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 07 Nov 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	146
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	013
Estimated international sunspot number	075 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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