Viewing archive of Sunday, 9 November 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Nov 09 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
09 Nov 2014	136	006
10 Nov 2014	136	029
11 Nov 2014	136	017

Bulletin

Solar activity was low over the period, with the main region of interest NOAA 2205 producing numerous flares but restricted to below the C5 level. The largest were three C4.4 flares peaking at 17:55 UT, 03:09 UT and 07:20 UT respectively. A 35 degree long filament (near N20 extending from around W10 to around W45) was seen to lift off in SDO/AIA 304 images around 9:00 UT. Preliminary SOHO/LASCO coronagraph data show a CME in nortwestern direction from around 10:36 UT (first available image), which appears to be rather narrow, More coronagraph data are required to fully determine any possible Earth impact. A large eruption is also visible at the South-east limb in SDO/AIA 304 images starting around 10:40 UT. M class flares are still likely from region 2205 with a chance for X flares remaining. Solar wind speed decreased again from near 480 km/s at the start of the period to around 440 km/s presently, with minima close to 400 km/s. Total magnetic field increased at the end of the period to around 8nT presently. Bz was variable with the largest negative Bz around -5nT. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (both NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 1-3). Solar wind conditions are expected to remain nominal until the arrival of the 7 November CME on November 10 afternoon. Geomagnetic conditions are first quiet to unsettled with later active conditions and minor storm conditions associated with the CME arrival.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 069, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 08 Nov 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	132
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	009
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	063 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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