Viewing archive of Monday, 13 October 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Oct 13 1302 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Oct 2014	113	006
14 Oct 2014	113	011
15 Oct 2014	113	007

Bulletin

There are only two sunspot groups currently visible on the solar disk, and no C flares occurred during the past 24 hours. In the next 48 hours, eruptive conditions (C flaring) are possible, especially from beta region NOAA AR 2187. A bright CME was first seen in the SOHO LASCO C2 field of view at 00:00 UT on October 13. It had an angular width of about 90 degrees and is probably associated with an eruption in a backside region close to the west limb. This CME is not expected to be geoeffective. Over the last 24 hours, solar wind speed observed by ACE was low and fluctuated between about 310 and 340 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) first varied between 4 and 8.5 nT, and jumped from 5.5 to 9 nT around 5:45 UT on October 13, possibly due to an unidentified ICME structure. Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions were quiet (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 2). Quiet geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on October 13, 14 and 15, with a slight chance for active levels (K Dourbes = 4) in the early hours of October 14 in case the glancing blow of the CME from October 10 encounters the Earth.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 031, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Oct 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	111
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	002
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	021 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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