Viewing archive of Monday, 13 October 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Oct 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Oct,
15 Oct, 16 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 437 km/s at
13/1633Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 13/1136Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 13/2054Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (14 Oct, 15 Oct)
and quiet levels on day three (16 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Oct 113 Predicted 14 Oct-16 Oct 115/120/125 90 Day Mean 13 Oct 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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