Viewing archive of Sunday, 9 November 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Nov 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
09/1532Z from Region 2205 (N15E05). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Nov, 11
Nov, 12 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
476 km/s at 09/1811Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 09/2100Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 09/1710Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (10 Nov), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (11 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (12 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov, 12 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Nov to 12 Nov
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Nov 132 Predicted 10 Nov-12 Nov 135/145/150 90 Day Mean 09 Nov 141
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov 008/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 025/034-014/018-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov to 12 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 30% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 15% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 70% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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