Viewing archive of Monday, 5 January 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Jan 05 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
05 Jan 2015	152	020
06 Jan 2015	154	014
07 Jan 2015	156	007

Bulletin

Solar activity was low to moderate with an M1.3 flare from NOAA active region 2253 peaking at 15:36 UT and in addition a couple of low C flares from the same region. After losing its delta spot yesterday, region 2253 was fairly stable. Region 2255 grew slightly and seems to solidify. The reported M flare was not associated with any Earth directed CME. Region 2253 is likely to continue to produce C flares with a chance for an isolated M flare. The possibility for strong flaring over the next days from this region which is turning on the western hemisphere will also result in a growing chance for a proton event over the next days. Around UT midnight solar wind speed saw an increase from levels of around 400 km/s to levels around 500 km/s around, with later peaks over 550 km/s. This seems to mark the arrival of the expected southern coronal hole high speed stream. The total magnetic field saw peaks of over 15 nT, but was mainly in the 7 nT to 11 nT range. Bz was first firmly negative, peaking close to -10 nT but was variable after around 21:00 UT, though still with negative peaks up to -10nT. Geomagnetic conditions rose to active and minor storm levels in the afternoon and around midnight (NOAA Kp reaching 5 for the 15-18UT time slot as well as the time slots around midnight. Local K Dourbes only reaching K=5 for one period around midnight). Geomagnetic activity levels are currently back at quiet to unsettled levels. The influence of the high speed stream will continue over the next day with active to minor storms possible should pronounced periods of negative Bz occur.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 065, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 04 Jan 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	150
AK Chambon La Forêt	039
AK Wingst	025
Estimated Ap	024
Estimated international sunspot number	076 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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