Viewing archive of Tuesday, 6 January 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Jan 06 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
06 Jan 2015	143	013
07 Jan 2015	146	011
08 Jan 2015	149	007

Bulletin

Solar activity has been low with NOAA AR 2253 continuing to produce C flares. The largest one peaking at C7.4 level at 17:47 UT. But the strongest flare of the period was produced by an active region on the East limb in the southern hemisphere. It produced a C9.7 flare peaking at 11:48 UT. Region 2253 continues to carry mixed polarity field in the trailing part. All other regions on disc are unremarkable and stable or decaying. No CME events were recorded over the period. Flaring at C level is expected to continue with also a reasonable chance for M class flaring. Region 2253 as well as the new region which is turning onto the visible disc over the next days are the likely sources. A proton event is possible in case of strong flaring from region 2253. Solar wind conditions were determined by the influence of the southern polar coronal hole high speed stream. Wind speed tended to drop from around 500 km/s to a minimum of around 450 km/s before jumping back to levels of 500 km/s around 3:30 UT. In parallel the total magnetic field initially decreased from the 8nT to the 6nT range and then jumped with a peak of close to 14 nT. It is now at around 11 to 12 nT. After the jump greater variability in Bz was recorded with peaks below -10 nT. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled at planetary level (NOAA Kp 2-3), with locally an active period (K Dourbes 4 following the magnetic field increase this morning). Influence of the coronal hole high speed stream should first persist with afterwards a gradual return to normal conditions. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled with first active periods due to the high speed stream still possible.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 072, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 05 Jan 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	142
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	021
Estimated Ap	019
Estimated international sunspot number	067 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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