Viewing archive of Friday, 20 February 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Feb 20 1234 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

No forecast

	10cm flux	Ap
20 Feb 2015	125	007
21 Feb 2015	130	013
22 Feb 2015	140	017

Bulletin

Solar activity is gradually increasing to low levels, with two C1 flares originating from NOAA active region (AR) 2286. NOAA ARs 2287, 2288 and 2290 (Catania sunspot groups 88, 87 and 90 respectively) exhibited some growth. The strongest flare was a C1.6 flare, peaking at 10:25 UT on February 20. The C1.1 flare, peaking at 18:06 UT on February 19, was associated with a prominence eruption and a CME (first measurement in LASCO/C2 around 18 UT). The CME is mainly propagating to the southwest (not Earth-directed) and is too slow and too narrow to have any influence on Earth. The solar wind was at nominal levels, with the magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field maximally at 6 nT. The solar wind speed is gradually decreasing with current values near 340 km/s. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (K=1 to 3) at the local level (Dourbes), which is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase on February 22 to active levels due the influence of a high speed stream from a positive northern coronal hole.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 046, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 19 Feb 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	119
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	061 - Based on 12 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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