Viewing archive of Friday, 20 February 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Feb 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 51 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
20/1522Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Feb,
22 Feb, 23 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 409 km/s at
19/2232Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 20/2054Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 20/0727Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 774 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Feb), quiet to active
levels on day two (22 Feb) and unsettled levels on day three (23 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Feb 120 Predicted 21 Feb-23 Feb 120/125/125 90 Day Mean 20 Feb 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb 007/008-012/015-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 40% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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