Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 February 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Feb 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 50 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
18/2208Z from Region 2282 (N11W64). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Feb,
21 Feb, 22 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
462 km/s at 19/0626Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 18/2220Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 19/0140Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 401 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (20 Feb, 21 Feb) and quiet to
active levels on day three (22 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Feb 119 Predicted 20 Feb-22 Feb 120/120/125 90 Day Mean 19 Feb 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb 015/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 006/005-006/005-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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