Viewing archive of Wednesday, 18 March 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Mar 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 77 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
17/2334Z from Region 2297 (S16W64). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (19 Mar, 20 Mar) and
likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three
(21 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at active to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 727 km/s at 18/2056Z. Total IMF reached 21 nT at 17/2302Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -19 nT at 17/2236Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3129
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (19 Mar) and quiet
to unsettled levels on days two and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar). Protons
greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (19
Mar) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (20 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Mar to 21 Mar
| Class M | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 30% | 20% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Mar 115 Predicted 19 Mar-21 Mar 115/110/110 90 Day Mean 18 Mar 137
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar 046/118 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Mar 036/053 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar 018/025-008/018-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar to 21 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 30% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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