Viewing archive of Tuesday, 7 April 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Apr 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 97 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Apr,
09 Apr, 10 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 543 km/s at
07/0318Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 496 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Apr), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (09 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three
(10 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Apr to 10 Apr
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Apr 111 Predicted 08 Apr-10 Apr 115/120/125 90 Day Mean 07 Apr 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr 008/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 007/008-014/020-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr to 10 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 45% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 60% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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