Viewing archive of Wednesday, 8 April 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Apr 08 2150 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 98 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
07/2131Z from Region 2320 (S12E02). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Apr,
10 Apr, 11 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 395 km/s at
07/2137Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 08/0649Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -2 nT at 07/2225Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 450 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (09 Apr, 10
Apr) and quiet levels on day three (11 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Apr to 11 Apr
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Apr 106 Predicted 09 Apr-11 Apr 110/115/115 90 Day Mean 08 Apr 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Apr NA/ 005 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr 014/020-014/015-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr to 11 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 35% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 50% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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