Viewing archive of Thursday, 9 April 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Apr 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 99 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
09/1901Z from Region 2320 (S12W25). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Apr,
11 Apr, 12 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
429 km/s at 09/1453Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 09/2034Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 09/0928Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 271 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (10 Apr), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (11 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (12
Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Apr to 12 Apr
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Apr 113 Predicted 10 Apr-12 Apr 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 09 Apr 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr 014/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr 014/015-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr to 12 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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