Viewing archive of Monday, 8 June 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jun 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jun 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09
Jun, 10 Jun, 11 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 712 km/s at 08/1128Z. Total IMF reached 22 nT at 08/0505Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -21 nT at 08/0505Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (09 Jun), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (10 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (11
Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jun to 11 Jun
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jun 134 Predicted 09 Jun-11 Jun 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 08 Jun 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jun 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jun 022/033 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun 016/020-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jun to 11 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 25% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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