Viewing archive of Sunday, 5 July 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jul 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Jul, 07 Jul, 08 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 593 km/s at 04/2151Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 05/0040Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 05/0009Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Jul) and quiet levels on days two and three (07 Jul, 08 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jul to 08 Jul
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Jul 125
  Predicted   06 Jul-08 Jul 125/125/125
  90 Day Mean        05 Jul 124

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul  021/029
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Jul  020/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul  010/012-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul to 08 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%10%10%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%20%20%
Major-severe storm50%20%20%

All times in UTC

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