Viewing archive of Tuesday, 23 June 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jun 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
23/1219Z from Region 2371 (N12W28). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(24 Jun, 25 Jun, 26 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at active to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 1054 km/s at 23/1051Z. Total IMF reached 38 nT at 22/2102Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -25 nT at 23/0135Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 529
pfu at 22/2130Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
were contaminated by proton flux and therefore unreliable.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (24 Jun), minor
storm to severe storm levels on day two (25 Jun) and unsettled to minor
storm levels on day three (26 Jun). Protons are expected to cross
threshold on days one and two (24 Jun, 25 Jun) and are expected to cross
threshold on day three (26 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jun to 26 Jun
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 99% | 99% | 90% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jun 116 Predicted 24 Jun-26 Jun 115/110/110 90 Day Mean 23 Jun 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun 057/074 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jun 044/083 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun 028/040-048/080-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun to 26 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 40% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 79% | 85% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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