Viewing archive of Monday, 22 June 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jun 22 2220 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
22/1823Z from Region 2371 (N13W14). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(23 Jun, 24 Jun, 25 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 737 km/s at 22/1830Z. Total IMF reached 42 nT at 22/2000Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -39 nT at 22/1850Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1066
pfu at 22/1900Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 4102 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (23 Jun) and quiet
to minor storm levels on days two and three (24 Jun, 25 Jun). Protons
are expected to cross threshold on days one, two, and three (23 Jun, 24
Jun, 25 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jun to 25 Jun
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 99% | 99% | 99% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jun 135 Predicted 23 Jun-25 Jun 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 22 Jun 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun 0NA/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jun 035/054 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun 024/040-014/020-018/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun to 25 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 45% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 90% | 70% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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