Viewing archive of Tuesday, 26 May 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 May 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 146 Issued at 2200Z on 26 May 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 May,
28 May, 29 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 368 km/s at
26/1731Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 26/1617Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -7 nT at 26/1613Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (27 May), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (28 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (29 May).
III. Event Probabilities 27 May to 29 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 May 095 Predicted 27 May-29 May 090/090/095 90 Day Mean 26 May 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 May 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 May 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 May-29 May 006/005-007/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 May to 29 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 25% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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