Viewing archive of Tuesday, 4 August 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Aug 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Aug,
06 Aug, 07 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 492 km/s at
04/0739Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 04/1608Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/1958Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1662 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (05 Aug), quiet to active levels on day
two (06 Aug) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (07 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Aug to 07 Aug
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Aug 107 Predicted 05 Aug-07 Aug 105/110/110 90 Day Mean 04 Aug 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug 009/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 006/006-011/012-017/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug to 07 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 40% | 70% |
All times in UTC
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