Viewing archive of Monday, 31 August 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Aug 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
31/0522Z from Region 2403 (S15W99). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (01
Sep, 02 Sep, 03 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 444 km/s at
30/2112Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 30/2323Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 30/2208Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2912 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (01 Sep), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (02 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day
three (03 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Sep to 03 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Aug 091 Predicted 01 Sep-03 Sep 085/080/080 90 Day Mean 31 Aug 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 014/020-017/022-011/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep to 03 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 45% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 70% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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