Viewing archive of Monday, 16 November 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Nov 16 1233 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
16 Nov 2015	105	008
17 Nov 2015	103	007
18 Nov 2015	101	020

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was very low with X-ray flux remaining below C level. A filament eruption occurred near the disk centre around 23:00UT with an associated rise in X-ray flux reaching a peak at B7.8 level at 00:08UT. The event was followed by a secondary filament eruption (around 2:14UT) located more to the South-West. All regions on disk were relatively stable or decaying. Quiet conditions are expected to continue. Coronagraph data show the signatures of the CME associated to the filament eruption from around 23:24 onwards (in SoHO/LASCO C2), but suffer from a subsequent data gap. The eruption is primarily directed South-West and later coronagraph images show an angular extent of around 180 degrees. Given the location of the source region and the partial halo character a possible impact at Earth is quite probable. Following receipt of the missing coronagraph data a more detailed impact assessment will be made along with a more accurate velocity estimate. Solar wind conditions were close to nominal. solar wind speed declined to 370 km/s, while total magnetic field rose to values of around 9nT. Bz was predominantly negative with peaks down to -8nT. The phi angle was in the positive (away) sector. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to active (K Dourbes 1-3, while NOAA Kp 1-4). Nominal solar wind conditions and associated quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 to 48 hours with later slightly enhanced conditions possible by the influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 036, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 15 Nov 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	106
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	061 - Based on 12 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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