Viewing archive of Tuesday, 17 November 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Nov 17 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Nov 2015	105	006
18 Nov 2015	103	038
19 Nov 2015	103	023

Bulletin

Solar conditions were quiet with the X-ray flux remaining at a background value of around B2-B3 level apart from a B4.7 flare peaking at 11:19UT from over the North-East limb. Decay and footpoint spreading was recorded in NOAA regions 2453 and 2455 (Catania group 76) while some flux emergence and development occurred in NOAA region 2454 (Catania group 78). Quiet Solar conditions are expected. The double filament eruption of late November 15 produced a double CME towards the South West. As reported yesterday, the first appearance in SoHO/LASCO C2 is at 23:24UT. Subsequent coronagraph images now show that the angular extent of this first CME is rather limited. However, the core of the CME corresponding to the second filament eruption is visible from 3:12 UT November 16 onwards. It is directed primarily in SouthWest direction and reaches an angular extent of around 180 degrees. Projected speeds are higher than that of the first CME and between 600-700 km/s. Cactus failed to detect the second CME within the earlier detection. A glancing blow or shock arrival from the second CME can be expected around noon November 18. No other CME's have been recorded in coronagraph data. Solar wind conditions were close to nominal with wind speeds in the 365-385 km/s range and total magnetic field in the 5-8 nT range. Bz started the period around -8nT but became more variable (as compared to previous reporting period) throughout the period. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (both local K Dourbes and NOAA Kp 1-3). Solar wind conditions are expected to remain nominal initially with quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions. While tomorrow around UT noon a combination of an expected negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream and the anticipated arrival of the November 16 CME will enhance solar wind conditions with possibly active geomagnetic conditions or minor geomagnetic storms.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 035, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Nov 2015

Wolf number Catania	044
10cm solar flux	106
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	015
Estimated Ap	015
Estimated international sunspot number	037 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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