Viewing archive of Monday, 23 November 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Nov 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
23/0228Z from Region 2454 (N14W67). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (24 Nov, 25 Nov) and
expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day
three (26 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 359 km/s at
23/0329Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 181 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (24 Nov) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Nov to 26 Nov
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Nov 120 Predicted 24 Nov-26 Nov 120/115/110 90 Day Mean 23 Nov 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov 005/005-012/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov to 26 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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