Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 November 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Nov 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Nov,
26 Nov, 27 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 370 km/s at
24/1454Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 187 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (25 Nov, 26 Nov) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Nov to 27 Nov
| Class M | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Nov 113 Predicted 25 Nov-27 Nov 115/115/110 90 Day Mean 24 Nov 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov 011/015-008/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov to 27 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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