Viewing archive of Sunday, 20 March 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Mar 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 80 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
20/0133Z from Region 2521 (N18W91). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Mar,
22 Mar, 23 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 471 km/s at 19/2250Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 20/2001Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
20/1714Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1640 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (21 Mar,
22 Mar, 23 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Mar 088 Predicted 21 Mar-23 Mar 090/085/085 90 Day Mean 20 Mar 103
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar 012/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar 008/008-007/008-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 25% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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