Viewing archive of Friday, 8 April 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Apr 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 99 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
08/1638Z from Region 2529 (N10E65). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Apr,
10 Apr, 11 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 1039 km/s at 07/2216Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 08/0235Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 07/2127Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Apr) and quiet levels
on days two and three (10 Apr, 11 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Apr to 11 Apr
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Apr 098 Predicted 09 Apr-11 Apr 100/105/105 90 Day Mean 08 Apr 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr 010/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Apr 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr 007/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr to 11 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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