Viewing archive of Saturday, 12 March 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Mar 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 72 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
12/0619Z from Region 2513 (N10W57). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Mar,
14 Mar, 15 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 597 km/s at 11/2256Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 12/0343Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
11/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 182 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Mar), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (14 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (15 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Mar 095 Predicted 13 Mar-15 Mar 095/095/090 90 Day Mean 12 Mar 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar 021/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar 013/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 010/010-007/008-017/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 20% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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