Viewing archive of Wednesday, 1 June 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Jun 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (02 Jun, 03 Jun)
and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on
day three (04 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 528 km/s at 31/2352Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 31/2134Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
31/2123Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1373 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (02 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (03 Jun) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (04
Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jun to 04 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jun 086 Predicted 02 Jun-04 Jun 085/080/075 90 Day Mean 01 Jun 092
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 May 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun 006/005-008/010-024/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun to 04 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 35% | 75% |
All times in UTC
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