Viewing archive of Thursday, 2 June 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Jun 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jun 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (03
Jun, 04 Jun, 05 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 453 km/s at 02/0346Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1311 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (03 Jun) and unsettled to
major storm levels on days two and three (04 Jun, 05 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jun to 05 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jun 085 Predicted 03 Jun-05 Jun 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 02 Jun 092
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jun 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jun 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun 008/010-024/035-021/032
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun to 05 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 35% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 20% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 70% | 70% |
All times in UTC
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