Viewing archive of Saturday, 9 July 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Jul 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
09/1607Z from Region 2564 (N09E63). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Jul,
11 Jul, 12 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 692 km/s at 09/1439Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 08/2313Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
09/1300Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3008 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (10 Jul, 12 Jul)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (11 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jul to 12 Jul
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jul 092 Predicted 10 Jul-12 Jul 092/092/090 90 Day Mean 09 Jul 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul 018/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul 014/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 015/016-015/020-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul to 12 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 45% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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