Viewing archive of Sunday, 10 July 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Jul 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
10/0059Z from Region 2564 (N09E51). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (11 Jul, 12 Jul, 13 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 685 km/s at 10/0044Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 10/0223Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
10/0504Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4159 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (11 Jul), quiet to
active levels on day two (12 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (13 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jul to 13 Jul
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jul 094 Predicted 11 Jul-13 Jul 092/090/090 90 Day Mean 10 Jul 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul 015/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul 015/020-012/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul to 13 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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