Viewing archive of Sunday, 7 August 2016

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Aug 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 07/1444Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Aug, 09 Aug, 10 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 622 km/s at 07/0540Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 07/0144Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 06/2123Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10111 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (09 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (10 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Aug to 10 Aug
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Aug 093
  Predicted   08 Aug-10 Aug 100/105/100
  90 Day Mean        07 Aug 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug  013/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Aug  010/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug  015/020-007/008-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug to 10 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%20%30%
Minor storm25%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%20%20%
Minor storm25%25%35%
Major-severe storm55%25%30%

All times in UTC

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