Viewing archive of Saturday, 3 September 2016

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Sep 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Sep, 05 Sep, 06 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 823 km/s at 03/2050Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 03/0406Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 02/2113Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 22115 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels on day one (04 Sep), unsettled to active levels on day two (05 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (06 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Sep 099
  Predicted   04 Sep-06 Sep 100/100/100
  90 Day Mean        03 Sep 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep  024/036
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Sep  026/036
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep  020/030-015/018-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%15%15%
Minor storm10%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm30%10%10%

All times in UTC

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