Viewing archive of Wednesday, 7 December 2016

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2016 Dec 07 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
07 Dec 2016	079	008
08 Dec 2016	078	016
09 Dec 2016	077	015

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. Flaring has been at the B-class level. Active Region (AR) 2615 (Mcintosh class:Dsi; Mag. type:Beta) has been most active, producing all the B-class flares. AR 2612 has now passed over the West solar limb. AR 2615 has shown some evidence of flux emergence and cancellation in HMI magnetogram observations, which may increase flaring activity. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. Solar protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours with a high probability of C-class flares and a low probability of M-class flares.

The solar wind speed has fluctuated between 330 and 400 km/s over the past 24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has fluctuated between 5 nT and 10 nT. The Bz component has fluctuated between -10 and +6 nT, but has been negative most of the morning. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 1-3 (NOAA) and local K index 0-3 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours, with the slightly enhanced values occurring due to the negative Bz. A large negative polarity Southern polar trans-equatorial coronal hole will be creating enhanced solar wind conditions over the coming days due to influences from the associated Co-Rotating-Interaction Region (CIR) and subsequent Coronal Hole (CH) High Speed Stream (HSS). As a consequence Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 019, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 06 Dec 2016

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	080
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	033 - Based on 28 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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