Viewing archive of Wednesday, 28 December 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Dec 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (29
Dec, 30 Dec, 31 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 561 km/s at 27/2221Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12391 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (29 Dec), quiet to active levels on day
two (30 Dec) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (31 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Dec 073 Predicted 29 Dec-31 Dec 073/070/072 90 Day Mean 28 Dec 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Dec 007/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec 006/005-010/012-017/024
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 50% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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